NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?

[CrazyEights]

ERA IS an incredibly important stat, but it can't be the only stat used when judging a CY Young winner. IMO, other very important stats include WHIP and Game Scores. Both Clemens and Carpenter are essentially equal in those stats at this point in the season. Clemens' and Carpenter's ERAs are getting closer every week, but a difference of 10 wins between these two pitchers is huge. Of course luck is involved in wins and losses, because luck is involved in nearly every aspect of the game of baseball including ERA.

[Fishercat]

The degree of luck is vastly different. Kind of like saying everyone loses with the best hand in poker once in a while, but when one guy loses with 3-3 to A-K, and the other loses with A-A to A-7 (exaggeration), one is a more severe bad beat.

As I said, both are nearly equal, but if they are essentially equal in game scores, what does that leave for my stats? ERA (or RA), IP, K/BB?

I showed it before, using a stat that Providence likes, that Clemens has 9 more QS than Carpenter in which he did not get the win, which at the time was the same number of wins difference. It isn't that he isn't doing his job the best, rather that his offense had consistantly let him down.

[CrazyEights]

Originally Posted by Fishercat I showed it before, using a stat that Providence likes, that Clemens has 9 more QS than Carpenter in which he did not get the win, which at the time was the same number of wins difference. It isn't that he isn't doing his job the best, rather that his offense had consistantly let him down.

It doesn't mean he IS doing best either. The Average game score is essentially equal, but Carpenter's is slightly higher than Clemens. That's not a big difference at all, but Carpenter's is better. Qualty starts is a nice shiny stat that makes it easy to evaluate game scores. I don't care much for QS's as a stat, but evaluating game scores as a whole is important in evaluating the better pitcher.

Getting wins isn't put all on the offense either. Carpenter goes deeper into his games and the deeper a pitcher goes into his own game, the better chance he has of getting a win. The 7-9 innings are also innings that a pitcher can give up more runs due to fatige. Carpenter pitches into those later innings more often than Clemens does. It's very possible that Clemen's ERA would be higher if he went longer into his games.

[Providence A's]

Originally Posted by Fishercat I showed it before, using a stat that Providence likes, that Clemens has 9 more QS than Carpenter in which he did not get the win, which at the time was the same number of wins difference. It isn't that he isn't doing his job the best, rather that his offense had consistantly let him down.

Carpenter has more total quality starts and a higher percentage (highest in MLB history to this point). For you to say Clemens has more quality starts in games he did not get the win is like saying the sky is blue. Of course he is going to have more because he has more no decisions and losses than Carpenter! Carpenter has less in that specific situation because he has won more games!

I'll see your "Clemens has more QS in games he didn't get the win" and raise you "Carpenter has more QS in games he's won" and "Carpenter has more total QS." Looks like I win that hand.

[Fishercat]

PA

My point was, that the number of QS in which Clemens did not get a win was the exact difference between his number of wins and Carp's number of wins. Which means his offense did not step up and give him an adequate number of runs. My point wasn't that he had more period. Rather that he had that many more, the degree rather than the fact. If it was one or two QS, insignificant, but it grows to be significant. All I was saying that if each of their offenses performed well enough to give a pitcher a win each time the pitcher has a QS (which at worst can be a projected 4.5 ERA if the pitcher continued the pace and lost his QS).

CE:

As I've said before, it's come down to a battle of IP v. ERA difference for me. If Clemens went deeper into games, would his ERA be higher? Possiblt. If Carpenter didn't go as far into games, would his ERA be lower? Possibly.

I'd have a difficulty saying that his influence in wins (dependence on offense, defense) is even half as much as his influence on his ERA (dependence on defense), and his WHIP (dependence on defensive range). That's why I do not like wins. Same reason I abhor using RBIs as a statistic to decide awards.

General Issue:
If I had to vote for the Cy Young right at this very moment, I'd have an extremely tough decision. 3 more games worth of IP or about .4 points in ERA (2 ER every 45 innings). Toughie. I'd certainly have a long time to think about who I would vote for, more so than a week, month ago. And that's not even considering wins and losses.

Funny thing, if you check Baseball Prospectus Expected Wins and Losses, Clemens and Carpenter are almost exactly the same in team record and Carpenter has two more wins and two more losses than Clemens in today's expected W-L. The only major difference on that page? Clemens has been the 5th most unlucky SP, while Carpenter has been the 10th luckiest (with my dawg Clement at #2). Interesting stuff.

FWIW, if someone put a gun to my head right now and told me to vote, I'd likely take Carpenter, but it would be based off of a personal bias for Carp.

[CrazyEights]

Originally Posted by Fishercat Funny thing, if you check Baseball Prospectus Expected Wins and Losses, Clemens and Carpenter are almost exactly the same in team record and Carpenter has two more wins and two more losses than Clemens in today's expected W-L. The only major difference on that page? Clemens has been the 5th most unlucky SP, while Carpenter has been the 10th luckiest (with my dawg Clement at #2). Interesting stuff. FWIW, if someone put a gun to my head right now and told me to vote, I'd likely take Carpenter, but it would be based off of a personal bias for Carp.

They are almost exactly the same in most stats except ERA and Wins! WHIP and Average Game Score are really too close to call. IMO, GS is more reliable than ERA because it evaluates more aspects of the game including unearned runs. Of course, no stat is perfect.

The problem I have with the Clemens CY Young talk is that these two pitchers are so very close in almost every category, but yet Clemen's is considered as having a "legendary season", but Carpenter is simply having a "very good year".

[Providence A's]

Clemens deserves to lose soley on the basis that MLB forced him into the ASG in 2003 when he didn't make it because he was "retiring." He didn't and keeps on playing. Now it's time for him to get porked.

Oh, and it's "legendary" purely because of Clemens' age. If Clemens were younger, then he could finish games like he used to do...and then his season would truly be legendary.

[Fishercat]

Originally Posted by CrazyEights They are almost exactly the same in most stats except ERA and Wins! WHIP and Average Game Score are really too close to call. IMO, GS is more reliable than ERA because it evaluates more aspects of the game including unearned runs. Of course, no stat is perfect. The problem I have with the Clemens CY Young talk is that these two pitchers are so very close in almost every category, but yet Clemen's is considered as having a "legendary season", but Carpenter is simply having a "very good year".

I am assuming the part you responded to was the lucky part. I was just saying based on whatever BP uses, they are very similar pitchers, and if they were in the same situation, they would have a similar W-L record, and that Clemens W-L record shows he is unlucky almost to the same degree that Carpenter is lucky in terms of wins and losses. Even when you equalize their team situations, according to those stats, they are very simlar pitchers.

Hell, I agree.

Trust me, I have a problem with the whole legendary/very good thing too. They are both having some of the best seasons since Pedro Martinez 99-00 years. They're only saying legendary because of what Providence said and because of the ERA below 2 OMG WTF LEGENDARY!!!111.

Although, I would add IP as a stat they are significantly different in.

[love_that_reefer]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/4852922

[Fishercat]

The problem I have with that ranking list is that wins = ERA = opponents slugging. It's a very convenient ranking list, certainly a nice one to have if you weight the scores using your own system, but the rankings themselves only have worth if a person believes that wins = WHIP, but losses = nothing.

[Fishercat]

I also don't like the lack of IP as a barometer, but as I said, convenient rankings.

[love_that_reefer]

Its just one man's opinion.