Destination: Cooperstown (Part 1)

No individual honor in baseball is more exclusive than entry into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. The gold busts in Cooperstown are said to immortalize the legends of the game - just a quick glance around and even the average baseball fan will recognize the greatness. Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Mathewson, Young, Aaron, Mays, Rose…OK, sorry about that last one. But with the fairly recent additions of Craig Biggio to the 3,000 hit-by-pitch…er, hits club, and Frank Thomas to the 500-HR club, the Hall of Fame has once again become an issue worth debating. Looking through all the teams in baseball, there are quite a few worthy candidates, so let’s take a look at the 14 American League teams and see what we can find…
*Note: Two statistical categories I will be using here are Black Ink and Gray Ink, both developed by noted statistician Bill James (if you don’t know who he is, well do yourself a favor and look him up). Black Ink is a test to measure how often a player led the league in a variety of "important" stats with the average Hall of Famer scoring about a 27 for hitters and a 40 for pitchers. Gray Ink is virtually the same as Black Ink, except it accounts for being in the Top 10 of statistical categories, with the average Hall of Famer scoring about a 144 for hitters and a 185 for pitchers.

Baltimore Orioles

SS Miguel Tejada

Career numbers: 1502 games, 1679 hits, 248 HR, .287 AVG, .820 OPS
Black Ink: 11, Gray Ink: 66
Pros: He’s been an AL MVP, 4-time All-Star, and is in the prime years of his career at a hitter’s park in Camden Yards. He also just recently ended the 5th-longest consecutive games streak of all-time. He has a 99.0 on the Hall of Fame monitor, where 100 is a good possibility to make it. Shortstop is also a favorable position for fringe HoF hitting numbers.
Cons: Tejada has been consistently very good, but perhaps not Hall of Fame good. In 4 postseason series, he’s gone 18-for-85 (.212) with a .571 OPS and one HR, and his team lost all four. His power numbers have strangely declined since moving from Oakland to Baltimore as well.
Odds of making the Hall: 25%. Tejada needs a few more MVP-type seasons to gain consideration for the Hall. However, he should have many years ahead of him and has been a mostly durable player throughout his career.

Boston Red Sox

DH David Ortiz

Career numbers: 1142 games, 1156 hits, 250 HR, 830 RBI, .287 AVG, .931 OPS
Black Ink: 14, Gray Ink: 60
Pros: Since joining the Red Sox, Ortiz has only gotten better and better, hitting 173 HRs in a 4-year span. He’s placed 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the MVP voting those years and had a very good case to win in 2 of those years. His reputation in the clutch is unparalleled in the league today and he is easily one of the most feared hitters in the league.
Cons: 2 great years and 2 very good years does not make a Hall of Famer - Ortiz simply doesn’t have enough good seasons to warrant consideration at this point, and needs quite a few more 40-HR seasons. He also has a very unspectacular defensive resume and doesn’t play a demanding position, when he plays at all.
Odds: 40%. Ortiz’s late start to his career is damning, but his reputation in the clutch and the fact that he’s only 31 (!) will give him some consideration.

LF Manny Ramirez

Career numbers: 1923 games, 2181 hits, 488 HR, 1585 RBI, .313 AVG, 1.005 OPS
Black Ink: 21, Gray Ink: 156
Pros: He’ll hit 500 HRs either by the end of this season, or by next, and he even has an outside shot at 600. His average and OPS are spectacular for a player with so much power and he also has 9 Silver Sluggers, 11 All-Star appearances, and a World Series MVP to boot.
Cons: He’s never been regarded as a good defender despite an above-average arm and plays in a tremendous hitter’s park.
Odds: 100%. Manny will get to 500 homers and beyond and has long been one of the league’s feared hitters.

SP Curt Schilling

Career numbers: 213 W, 560 games (427 starts), 3086 Ks, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .600 winning pct
Black Ink: 43, Gray Ink: 209
Pros: Schilling is a Hall of Famer by Black and Gray Ink standards and on the Hall of Fame monitor. He’s been a 3-time runner up in the Cy Young, has a co-World Series MVP (don’t ask me about it) and he’s been a 6-time All-Star. His reputation in the clutch has also been enhanced incredibly by the 2001 World Series performance and the 2004 “bloody sock” game (again, don’t talk to me about it).
Cons: 213 wins may not be enough to get Schilling into the Hall. And he never actually has won a Cy Young in his 20 years.
Odds: 55%. Schilling’s numbers are very good although not spectacular, but his wins are low due to playing on some pretty bad Phillies teams.

SS Julio Lugo

Odds: 112%
(sorry about that)

New York Yankees

3B Alex Rodriguez

Career numbers: 1855 games, 2187 hits, 500 HR, 1455 RBI, .305 AVG, .962 OPS, 253 SBs (80%)
Black Ink: 65, Gray Ink: 192
Pros: Let’s see…he’s the youngest ever to 500 home runs and should get to 3000 hits easy, he’s a 2-time MVP, 2-time runner-up, and also has a 3rd place finish. He’s been an All-Star in 11 of 13 full seasons, with 8 Silver Slugger awards. Oh yeah, he’s also on pace to hit about 800 home runs.
Cons: Has become infamous for his supposed failure in clutch spots, although he has had some good playoff moments and some dramatic ninth-inning home runs.
Odds: 100%. A-Rod would be a Hall of Famer if he retired today.

SS Derek Jeter

Career numbers: 1787 games, 2294 hits, 191 HR, 260 SBs (78%), .317 AVG, .852 OPS
Black Ink: 6, Gray Ink: 116
Pros: Jeter is well on his way to 3000 hits and should go well over at his current pace. He has never hit below .291 in a full season and only hit below .300 three times (.291, .292, .297). He is an 8-time All-Star, a 4-time World Series winner, renowned for his clutch abilities like nobody else in the game, and the captain of the most successful franchise in sports history.
Cons: Despite his two Gold Gloves, Jeter has generally been regarded as an average to below-average defender. He doesn’t have overwhelming power numbers either and is known as somewhat of a “singles hitter.”
Odds: 95%. Jeter should get 3000 hits easy, which alone is enough to propel him into the hall, but his high average, 4 WS rings, and prowess in the clutch should earn him a spot in Cooperstown.

SP Roger Clemens

Career numbers: 351 W, 118 CG, 4647 Ks, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .657 winning pct
Black Ink: 100, Gray Ink: 314
Pros: 7-time Cy Young, 2nd all-time in strikeouts, 8th all-time in wins…there really isn’t much more to say
Cons: He’ll probably never make the Hall because he can’t stay retired.
Odds: 100%. Clemens is perhaps the greatest modern pitcher and as big of a lock to enter the Hall as there is in the game today.

RP Mariano Rivera

Career numbers: 762 games, 429 saves, 2.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Black Ink: 9, Gray Ink: 33
Pros: He’s an 8-time All-Star, 3rd all-time in saves, and a 4-time Rolaids Relief man of the year. Rivera has widely been considered one of the most automatic closers of all-time and has never posted an ERA of over 3.00 in a full season. We all remember the 2001 World Series and 2004 ALCS, but Rivera has a ridiculous 0.80 ERA in 112.2 postseason innings pitched along with a WS MVP and an ALCS MVP to boot.
Cons: The Hall has historically left out some very deserving closers.
Odds: 100%. Despite the Hall’s prejudice against closers, there’s no way they can leave out one of the top 5 relievers in baseball history in Rivera.

Toronto Blue Jays

1B/DH Frank Thomas

Career numbers: 2200 games, 2349 hits, 503 HRs, 1635 RBI, .302 AVG, .983 OPS
Black Ink: 21, Gray Ink: 202
Pros: 503 HRs with an over .300 AVG is very impressive, showcasing Thomas as a player who can hit for both power and contact. His plate discipline is also excellent, as his 1605 walks are 10th all-time on the career MLB list. He’s also a 2-time MVP winner.
Cons: He’s played most of his career games at DH.
Odds: 98%. Thomas was long one of the game’s feared hitters and has the numbers to back it up, with contact, power, and plate discipline.

[nyjunc]

No to Tejada

No to ortiz(He has played at a HOF level in Boston but unless he does it
another 5-6 years he won't make it)

YES to Manny

YES to Schilling, along w/ Smoltz and Rivera the best clutch pitchers of our time.

Lugo?

YES to ARod

YES to Jeter

YES to Clemens

Yes to Mariano

Yes to Thomas

[redsrbetter]

ARod has 65 black ink and Jeter only has 6? I rest my case on Jeter.

Anyhow, hilarious throw-ins man. Rose in the Hall and Biggio with the 3,000 HBP club. Julio Lugo? Does he even have ink? I love it!

I think you have a list of almost surefire shoe-ins here with the exception of the Lugo glitch. It is going to be interesting to see who gets in on the first ballot. We have to bet that Clemens and ARod will. The others will be close. Schilling may have a pretty solid shot and I wouldn't doubt Jeter as a first ballot either even though he has close to no ink. Maybe he needs to visit the tattoo parlor?

Good stuff as usual browntown.

+rep, DIGG, delicious, YB, FB

[browntown653]

Originally Posted by nyjunc No to Tejada No to ortiz(He has played at a HOF level in Boston but unless he does it another 5-6 years he won't make it) YES to Manny YES to Schilling, along w/ Smoltz and Rivera the best clutch pitchers of our time. Lugo? YES to ARod YES to Jeter YES to Clemens Yes to Mariano Yes to Thomas

Thanks for the feedback, but there's a Page 2 also

[browntown653]

Originally Posted by redsrbetter ARod has 65 black ink and Jeter only has 6? I rest my case on Jeter.

Honestly, after I finished typing this up, I realized that the Hall of Fame Standards and Hall of Fame Monitor would probably have been better evaluators to use than Ink - case in point, Pudge Rodriguez's Ink numbers are very low. But I didn't feel like going back and putting it in for everyone because I'm lazy. Hell, I wasn't even gonna include Ink in the first place but perf talked me into it.

[redsrbetter]

Well the ink just gave it a nicer feel. So I appreciated it.

Here is to Griffey getting in on the first ballot!

[metsguy]

Clemens
Mike Piazza
Ivan Rodriguiez
Sammy Sosa
Vladimir Guererro
Derek Jeter
Ichiro
Mike Mussina
Fran Thomas
A-Rod

[love_that_reefer]

No to Tejada- not dominating

No to Ortiz- career not long enough and the numbers are simply not there, even for a DH

Yes to Manny- One of the best run producers.

A push for Schilling- Never the best pitcher but has good postseason stats

Yes to ARod

Yes to Jeter

Yes to Clemens

Yes to Mariano

A push for Thomas- great start to his career but injuries have plagued him

Yes to Piazza- best offensive catcher ever

Yes to Biggio- 3,000 hits and All Star at two different positions GG's and 400 stolen bases all with the same team.

Yes to Smoltz- 200 wins and 150 saves and great in the clutch.

[love_that_reefer]

Yes to Jeff Kent-Best offensive second baseman we've seen.