Trade Season; Just Not What It Used To Be

Today is the 29th day in July, which brings baseball fans closer to the moment they either praise or curse the general manager of their favorite ball club. We are just three days away from the non-waiver trade deadline. No doubt, each buying general manager (GM) has all his competitors on speed dial. And the sellers have their phones turned all the way up. And while the phones are ringing and proposals are being made, next to nothing has come together for these clubs.

Many teams have expressed their needs for what they believe would put them in contention. There are teams that can fulfill those needs with the players these contending teams covet. So why hasn’t there been that many trades yet? I find myself constantly asking this same perpetual question, but I have not come up with a suitable answer.

Perhaps many teams are holding out for more. For example; GM [a] may have a fine offer on the table from GM [b] and is waiting to see if a better offer will be made or if a different proposal with GM [c] will materialize. Or maybe it is like some cases where one move sparks another and we get a wildfire of transactions over the course of a few days.
Nevertheless, I still think moves will be made and am not about to give up hope on where I believe some of the big names are going. I would like to discuss some of those names right now.

Mark Teixeira

Mark Teixeira
Pos.	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
1B	.299	13	49	.401	.532

The Angels, Braves, and Dodgers look to be the front runners for acquiring the big first baseman. The Angels have offered first baseman Casey Kotchman and a choice of outfielders Nathan Haynes and Terry Evans. There are also reports that the Angels could offer a pitcher to the mix as well. Names like Nick Adenhart, Ervin Santana, or Joe Saunders are intriguing and likely available.

The Braves are said to have talked about Jared Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison. But there are also reports that their young prospects are not available. Perhaps they would bend on that for a guy like Teixeira.

The Dodgers like Teixeira and Joaquin Benoit or Eric Gagne. Maybe they can find a deal to work with their surplus of young talent.

My prediction here is that the Angels will get the big left handed bat for Casey Kotchman, Terry Evans, and Ervin Santana. Kotchman is having a good season and is showing he can make solid contact. He is a left-handed first baseman who can step in to fill the void left by Teixeira. Terry Evans is a 25-year-old centerfielder playing AAA ball for the Salt Lake Bees. He his hitting for a nice average at a .317 clip and has an .865 OPS. Not bad for someone who just caught up to his ability. And finally Ervin Santana is a work in progress but is still young and talented enough to take a chance on. If he becomes anywhere near as good as once expected, this could end up being a steal for the Rangers.

Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn
Pos.	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
LF/DH/1B	.266	27	67	.368	.554

Adam Dunn has been linked to nearly every contender it seems. But Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky seems to be asking the world for him even though he would only be a rent-a-player for the rest of the season for the acquiring team.

I believe the closest teams are the Padres, Braves, and possibly the Angels or Dodgers. These teams are still in contention and a bat the size of Dunn’s would be a major upgrade in the power department. I would like to believe the Padres had a shot, but after trading Scott Linebrink to the Brewers, they may not have much to offer. The other three teams are the leading candidates for the Teixeira sweepstakes and once he goes, Dunn should be plan B. I have Teixeira going to the Angels so that leaves Dunn for the Braves or Dodgers.

My prediction is that Dunn does not get traded and the Reds pick up his team option for 2008. Wayne Krivsky just isn’t getting the offers he may have thought he would get and he doesn’t want to pull another deal like he did with the Nationals last season. I just don’t see Dunn being traded unless it is really close to the deadline and someone throws out an offer he cannot refuse. The Dodgers may be in the best position to do that. Loney, Kershaw, and Ethier may be available if the Dodgers do not land anything else.

Jermaine Dye

Jermaine Dye
Pos.	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
RF	.234	18	51	.295	.459

Dye once was touted as a suitor for the Yankees, but those talks ended quickly last month. The frontrunners for this outfielder are the Mets and Mariners. Dye has a partial no-trade clause and stipulations are that Dye will only be traded to a team where he will play everyday. Kenny Williams has asked for packages like Khalil Greene and Scott Linebrink for Dye and many general managers are staying away from these demands.

My only concern for the team that gets him is whether they will pay for what he did last season or if they are paying attention to his numbers this year. He was an MVP candidate last season, but just look at that OBP and tell me he is the same player. Dye may be traded afterall, but if the White Sox are wanting more than a really good glove at shortstop and a nice bullpen arm, they have to be out of their minds.

I predict Dye will stay with the White Sox and become a free agent after this season. Ultimately you would think he wants to be traded to try and get a contract extension from another team. Maybe he plays well where he goes, who knows. But for now, he is not worth his seven and a half million-dollar contract and any general manager can see that. This is why I do not see him fitting any contending team. And like Dunn, he is a rent-a-player.

If he is traded, I say he goes to the Cubs above all current frontrunners. Omar Minaya and the Mets should be concentrating on pitching more than offense. The Mariners are not in contention this season and I just don't see Dye re-signing a contract with them. But the Cubs are still in the race with the Brewers and they might take a chance on him. Dye may see it fitting to play for a contender and not have to move out of Chicago.

Octavio Dotel

Octavio Dotel
Pos.	ERA	IP	SO	BB	WHIP
RP	3.91	23	29	11	1.52

Look for Dotel to be traded at the last minute as the Royals try and get as much as they can for him. There is a whole list of teams interested in this top arm but the Dodgers have seemed to be the frontrunner since Dotel was put on the trading block. As mentioned before, the Dodgers have plenty of talent in their system. They have already mentioned that Loney and Kemp are not available for a reliever. But other prospects like Chin-Lung Hu, Tony Abreu, or Jonathan Meloan are all available and may move for Dotel.

I predict Ned Colletti and Dayton Moore will come up with something fitting for both parties. But Colletti is going to have to work real hard to get what he wants for the price he wants with so many other teams in the hunt for Dotel.

The preceeded players are likely the most sought out and most reasonable to be moved. Even though I see there being no fit for Adam Dunn and the Reds, these are the players receiving the most buzz. It is a shame to see very little movement or talk before the deadline this year. But hopefully things will heat up in the coming days. Little talk is being generated and time is burning. Let us see how close my predictions come when and if any of these players get dealt.

Predictions recapped:
Teixeira to the Angels for Santana, Kotchman, and Evans.
Dunn stays with the Reds (If not, the Dodgers will get the deal done.)
Dye stays with the White Sox (If not, the Cubs will take the chance)
Dotel to the Dodgers for Abreu and Meloan

[realmofotalk]

I can't believe Nathan Haynes has trade value. Oakland traded Haynes and two others to Anaheim for Randy Velarde and Omar Olivares eight years ago.

[redsrbetter]

Feel free to make your own predictions everyone. The deadline is here!

[browntown653]

Great article redsr...although I don't see Tex going anywhere other than Atlanta honestly. I think the Dodgers have emerged as the front-runners for Dotel but I've said all along I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland or Detroit stepped in.

Also, what about Eric Gagne? The Rangers have many suitors for him and he would certainly be a more attractive option than Dotel. I foresee him being traded as well.

+ rep, diggity

[redsrbetter]

From what I am hearing, Gagne still has GMs worried about past injuries. No doubt Gagne is a better option than Dotel, but Dotel seems to be getting more buzz.

Anyhow, Gagne is another name that I am sure will go somewhere. But I think he will not go until just before the clock strikes deadline like Dotel. Texas will wait for the last minute to accept the best offer.

[realmofotalk]

Per Tigers pursuing Farnsworth - Rumors - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

Why exaclty would this reporter even say that Gagne would "balk at a deal that would send him to a team where he cant close"? Considering the amount their going to pay to get Gagne, it would be a waste to throw in in the set-up role or middle releif. He needs to be a closer and could easily be a closer in Detroit. nick_russell32 posted on Thursday, Jul 26, 2007 10:56 am EDT

Gagne will want to remain in the closer role for whichever team trades for him.

[redsrbetter]

I think which ever team gets him, he would be the ace in the bullpen. Definitely would be a closer to any team that needs him.

I bet Gagne goes to the Yankees.

[Dry1313]

hahaha

Gagne to the Tigers with Teixeira for half of Jim Leyland's left testicle.

[browntown653]

I don't think Gagne will go to the Yankees because Texas wants Ian Kennedy and the Yankees won't budge with him. Does Gagne have a no-trade clause?

[missionhockey21]

I think Teixeira either stays in Texas or goes to Atlanta. Salty Dog is untouchable by all accounts, but like you mentioned, I think they would bend on that thought for a guy to anchor their lineup in a much more definite way as obviously Saltalamacchia. And like I mentioned elsewhere, I think Texas losing the Tex to a team like the Braves could get guys like Minaya moving to make a corresponding move to keep up in the talent race.

Dunn staying in Cincy is my bet. His bat has picked up and obviously the Reds can't afford to lose run producers as durable as Dunn is. I am thinking Krivsky and his crew realizes what production they would lose with Dunn absent and they seem to be entirely hesitant on calling up a top 5 prospect like Joey Votto no matter how much he hits in AAA which says to me that they wouldn't expect him to replace the production of the big slugger. Of course then Krivsky traded away our RF and our SS last year for a middle tiered prospect, setup prospect and mopup man (the rest is gone), so any type of horror is possible.

I really don't know what to make of Dye, especially with the demands that Williams has for him so I don't know if that is just part of the game with him or what he is actually looking for.

And Dotel is going to be moved, no question about that, to where is the question. You have to give the Royals credit for a signing like that, these injured relievers of last season like himself and Gagne cost a pretty penny and were a gambler, but given how expensive the market is for relievers during free agency makes that gamble a worthy opportunity to take, especially with some of the talent they can get in return.

[redsrbetter]

Well trade number one is in the books with Teixeira going to the Braves. I was wrong on that one. Just another day at the office.

[missionhockey21]

I can see how you would think the Angels would jump in with a big offer, but this season the Angels seem like the kid who walks around the outside of the pool but finds reasons why he won't jump in every time. Now whether if another team forces their hand or desperation does, I don't know, but they seem way too hesitant to make a ballsy move at this point to get the power they need.

Maybe they'll prove me wrong.

[redsrbetter]

I am wondering if Dunn or Griffey are making them want to do a cannonball right about now...