Buyers Remorse?

Last winter 15 GMs went to the market and came back with a free agent starter that wasn’t on their team the year before. With the price of starting pitching as high as it has been in recent years, these 15 shoppers knew they were going to have to bring some serious cash with them, and each wanted good value for their money. Now a month into the season, some GM’s are laughing all the way to the bank, others are laughing all the way up the standings, and others aren’t laughing so much at all.

The seventeen FA starters (who went from one major league team to another, no minor league deals included) haven’t had such a great start overall. Together they are averaging:

$6.34 mil, 1.65 W, 1.88 L, 4.49 ERA, 31.1 IP, 9.3 BB, 20.1 Ks, 1.38 WHIP, .756 OPS

That’s about a quality start with 4 k’s and league average OPS every time out. Using this average as a baseline, let’s see who the savvy buyers are, and who might need an assistant GM… stat.

Bargain Basement

The Rangers, D-Backs, ChiSox, and the New Nationals were the best this winter at shopping the cheap racks and the scratch and dent wares, and coming up with some solid talent. Pedro Astacio signed the cheapest contract of any of the 17 free agent starters, $.8mil, and has delivered right around the average (4.5 era, 32IP, 20k, 9BB, .711 OPS.) saving this cash strapped team around 5.5 mil. S. Estes has paid off big time for the Arizona (3.38 ERA, .681 OPS) at only $2.5 mil, and they needed it with all of the money they threw at bigger name free agents.

And if you ever wondered if it’s tough to play in New York, just look to El Duce and Esteban Loaiza, who have both enjoyed getting out from under The Boss (or wait ‘til later in this article, hint hint). Hernandez is bolstering the southsiders’ staff for 4 mil this year and already has 3 wins to go with his 2.7 ERA. Loaiza has been unlucky to be winless with a 4.13 ERA and a .651 OPS, but at 3 mil, the nats will take those kind of innings.

Sometimes you get what you pay for…

Most of the teams shopping for pitching knew their budgets, knew there chances of winning this year, and knew what they were getting when contracts were signed. If you spend a little more than average (Lieber, Clement, Millwood, R. Ortiz) you’ll do a little better than average. These four have averaged around a 3.6 ERA and 33.5 IP, a .721 OPS, and have 9 wins to show for it. In this market that’s worth the $7.5 mil these guys will run.

If you spend a little less than average (Byrd, Lima, Wells) sometimes the results are “less than average,” which is a very kind way of saying, yeeech. These guys have given an average of 31.1 innings, with a 5.5 ERA and a .830 OPS. Yeeech. What’s the old saying about spending money and making money?

And then there are the GMs who put down the big bills and got the top shelf talent (Martinez, Lowe). Both of these former BoSox have punished NL hitters, posting 2.75 and 1.96 ERAs respectively, and they’re the only two on the list who have thrown a complete game (1 a piece). While Martinez leads the league in Ks and Lowe holds hitters to a .571 OPS, neither Omar or DePodesta are going to regret the combined $22.5 mil that’s being spent on these two.

Did You Get the Warranty?

Using the average as a standard, only three teams really got hosed at the bargaining table this year, and it’s easy to miss one of them. The Marlins’ starters have been so dominant as a staff that Al Leiter is quietly slipping under the radar as a pretty bad signing. His .712 OPS may bring the fish some hope that he’ll turn it around, but thus far the $8 mil he’s getting has bought 0 wins, a 5.66 ERA, and 12 walks in 20 innings.

The Reds continued their string of miserable deals for terrible pitching with the signing of Eric Milton. Against everyone’s better judgement, they gave a homer-prone guy with a career ERA of 4.76 $8.5 mil a year to come to their homer-prone park. Add to that a significant decrease in velocity (94 to 89) and lo and behold he’s given up 11 jacks in 6 starts. That’s got his ERA up a full run to 5.79 and hitters are enjoying the .912 OPS they get off of him. Double yeeech.

And then there’s Brian Cashman; you almost have to feel sorry for him. I think the baseball fates are against the Yankees (Steinbrenner) for their spend-to-win philosophy and Cashman is the fall guy. Jaret Wright’s on the DL and it’s actually helping the Yanks since in his starts he was getting hammered (2.29 WHIP, 1.150 OPS) and was giving up a run an inning. While that massacre unfolded and the pinstripes dropped in the standings, Carl Pavano tried to stay in the corner and not get noticed. His 4.24 ERA isn’t worth the $10 mil he’s getting, especially since at the time of his signing most other FA were still available, and the .826 OPS and 1.44 WHIP don’t point towards improvement.

Could this mean a loosing season for the bombers? As the only two time loser in the free agent pitching game, you have to say… probably not. They have so much money that they could probably replace the whole rotation midseason if they needed to, so I have to think they’ll turn it around one way or another. I hear Eric Milton might be available if you’re reading this Cashman, he’s won at least 13 games for the last three seasons…

[redsrbetter]

Excellent write up Wally! Interesting to see how well these signings have come in to place. Always funny to see how the more money spent, does not always mean the better quality you get.

It was also interesting to see how well pitchers are doing once they leave the confines of New York and Boston. Looks like my favorite had another terrible off season so far. Hopefully that will all change in short time.

Great first write up! I love this new site!

[Fishercat]

I didn't realize that the average FA SP (who is currently starting) got paid over 6 mil per. Egads...

Nice article man.

[777rak]

wow im impressed, very nice article

I enjoyed it/ it made me think

[Witlon]

It made me think too.

But then I realized, it's only May.

Guys like Leiter, Wells and Byrd ARE going to be better.

As for Milton...good point.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Originally Posted by Witlon It made me think too. But then I realized, it's only May. Guys like Leiter, Wells and Byrd ARE going to be better. As for Milton...good point.

agreed, a month isn't enough to say that any of these guys are a bust or a savior. Even Milton just had a good start last night. But it's the first real analysis point i think. 5 or 6 starts is at least enough to worry about.

I think some of those trends will hold up, i don't think Wells will have a good year, and i think Pavano will be maybe slightly better than average but not worth Ace money. Others i think will fall off. Leiter will probably bounce back, like i said, holding hitters to around a .7 OPS will lead to good things eventually, and i don't see El Duce making it through the season. Maybe half, and when he's healthy and not tired, he's real good, but he'll fatigue like he did last year in the end.

[Porter99]

Great Article, Im intrigued to see how the FA hitters are doing on that same reasoning.

[A's Baby Girl]

Excellent, well written article.

[ghettochild]

great read wally, great job.

[Fishercat]

Wells had two great starts before he got injured.

[love_that_reefer]

Ok now its time for grammarical errors and spelling errors. Just kidding bro, nice article.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Nice job Wally!

I'm planning on doing my first article soon, but honestly it probably won't be written until Saturday or Sunday at this point.

I have my last two finals(school is done for the year on Friday, whooo!) on Thursday and Friday, and I have to finish reading something/typing a paper.

[missionhockey21]

Jaret Wright to me is the biggest bust and will continue to be so. Unless George brings over Leo Mazzone, I expect Wright to continue to pitch how he did before last season, disappointing. Now I am not saying he will continue on the path he is on now because injuries are a factor, but he will not pitch to justify his contract.

And neither will Eric Milton. I would like to believe Milton would, but the inconsistency still remains. This has been the trend through much of his career and it is continuing into this season. He does have decent enough stuff though so I suppose there is hope that Gullet can develop him to pitch more consisent but I have my serious doubts about Gullet as it is.

BTW, tremendous article Wally. Thanks!

[Fishercat]

I should note on Milton (to add insult to injury), one of his better stats last year (wins) had a LOT of "cheap" wins (A cheap win is when a pitcher with a game score of sub-50 for a pitcher gets a win), the most in the NL.

[suppy]

witty and informative