We all see it, his stuff and his makeup is not MLB quality at this point. If I were in charge of player development, I would go to Jocketty and advise to give Bailey 1-3 more additional starts (likely 2-3.) Why do this? If Bailey struggles in those starts and the Reds send him down, he should feel like he had a fair shake at things and didn't prove his worth yet. I am not saying he will be happy or not have a problem with it, but I think demoting him after last night's game will cause yet another complaint.
Anyway, after giving him his shot, demote him and keep him down in the minors for the rest of the year, no exceptions. Tell him that the Reds want him to be a critical part to the 2009 rotation and to dominate he needs to work on key areas to prove to them that he'll be ready. Bring in one of the old Reds who knew how to throw off-speed and can coach (ie a Soto or Browning) to travel with AAA to specifically work with Homer as a mentor to develop his secondary pitches, his movement, location, etc. I know Bailey has had difficulty supposedly being coached (often that is denied by the coach) but perhaps having someone with a proven MLB record who would take the time to work with him and him alone would be acceptable to him and he would be receptive. Bailey was able to pitch this way in the minors and get away with it but it is obvious he has skipped a crucial part of his development and it is clear to see that he is not ready for this level, but that is what happens when you hurry (not rush in this case) prospects through the levels.
We all tend to forget that Bailey is young and many pitchers do not make their debut until 23, 24, 25. However, if he cannot refine his mechanics and harness his talent, he will simply never be a success. About the only difference between him now and when I saw him in A with Dayton is that he has cut down his stride to improve control and has therefore lost velocity.
Guaranteeing his success would be bold and frankly I am not for sure but it is clear that a change needs to be made and a special course of development action to salvage him.